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INJURY NEWS
Is Daisuke Matsuzaka Shoulder Bothering Him?
If you were able to catch part of Matsuzaka's start on Monday, the walks caught your eye. Eight in five innings of work. To his credit (and with the help of a struggling Tigers team) he allowed just one run. To me, anytime a pitcher walks six or more in a start, I start looking for injuries. Sure, the pitcher in question's struggles could be mechanics related. That is probably the answer most of the time. His control was off and he needs to tweak his mechanics. I was all set to chalk up his struggles to mechanics before I saw something that caught my eye. Matsuzaka had his back to the plate and he was rubbing and feeling his right shoulder joint. It lasted just a few seconds, but it looked like a signal to me that his shoulder was either tight or bothering him. I put on both the Boston and Detroit feeds on my dish to see if I could catch him doing it again and I did, a second time. Is Matsuzaka hurt? I do not have the answer to that at this moment, but I do believe he at least had some shoulder tightness at the minimum. Japanese players are from a culture that does not complain. That carries over to sports, where injured athletes will hide an ailment rather than show weakness and admit they are hurt. We have not heard of any stories in Boston that Matsuzaka has a shoulder problem. We will be watching closely to see if this is a problem that develops into something more serious. (May 6)
Major League Baseball in the Midst of an Injury Epidemic
Major League Baseball is on pace to set a another record for the number of players who spend time on the disabled list.
The previous record was set last year with 404 players. As of April 30, there are 180 players who have spent time on the disabled list this season. That is 6.6% increase over the same time last season. From 2002-2006, an average of 141 players landed on the DL from spring training through April 30 each year. This year’s pace is 21.7% greater than the average during that period. This alarming statistic could increase even further in the coming days with retroactive disabled list moves.
Three teams, the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and Atlanta Braves lead the Majors in injured players, having each already placed 11 players on the disabled list as of April 30.
Last year’s record 404 players was a 12.2 % increase over the five-year average between 2002-2006. The current pace is for 416 players to spend time on the disabled list in 2008.
2008 Injury Facts
- Pitchers account for 66.7% of the players placed on the disabled list so far.
- 22.7 % of the injuries are elbow related (10.7% Tommy John surgery)
- 22.7% are shoulder related (3.4 % are labrum related)
- Pitchers account for 91.3% of elbow and shoulder injuries
Tom Glavine and Jorge Posada are on the disabled list for the first time in their Major League careers. (updated May 2)
Is John Smoltz Career Over?
Smoltz is back from seeing Dr James Andrews and the diagnosis is troubling. He has a severely inflamed biceps tendon and inflammation of his rotator cuff. This diagnosis is 180 degrees more serious than the strained trapezius muscle that plagued him earlier this season. He received a cortisone injection from Andrews on Monday and now is in shutdown for the foreseeable future while they wait for the inflammation to clear up. The description of ‘severely’ should be a huge concern. That level of tendinitis does not clear up completely in a short period of time. The fact the biceps tendon is involved has to raise the question does he have some damage to the labrum too? The proximal biceps tendon (closest to the body) is very close to the labrum in the shoulder and Dr. Andrews’ research has shown a high frequency of labral tears in this area where the biceps tendon connects to bone.
Is Zimmerman Ailing?
It flew under the radar this past winter when Zimmerman suffered a fractured hamate bone in his left wrist and needed two surgeries to repair the damage. He arrived to spring training supposedly 100% and ready to go. His spring training was uneventful and when he hit a homer to win the first game at the Nationals new stadium, all was good. Since that first game, he has just one homer, and that was in the launching pad in Philly. Since April 2, he hasn't hit a homer, has hit just five doubles and has struggled to keep his BA above the Mendoza line. Since 2006, April has not been a great month for him. He hit just one homer in 2007 (.236 BA) and four homers (.242 BA) in 2006. Because of his history, we cannot conclude his poor start is due only to his wrist not being 100%, though our experience supports this statement.
His SO/AB rate is currently sitting at 5.82, slightly above his 2007 rate. He is slightly more selective at the plate, and we have not seen Zimmerman lose his plate discipline yet. One stat that does catch your eye is his GB/FB rate is 1.00. The past two seasons that ratio was 1.15 and 1.17. The sample size (almost 100 AB) is large enough to hint he has altered his swing some and is trying to get a bit more lift.
Zimmerman owners should still expect a drop in power this season as we predicted in the spring. If his wrist gets stronger, we could see an increase in power later in the season, though the history of players with hand and wrist injuries says otherwise. (April 24)
Richie Sexson Regaining Power Stroke
Sexson struggled with bursitis in his right shoulder during spring training. He received a cortisone injection just before the start of the season with the hope it would help clear up the malady. A couple of weeks later we can ask the question - with his recent power display is he over the hump? He currently has five homers and his slugging percentage is .508. That is in line with his 2006 level when he belted 34 homers and posted 40 doubles. The area he is lacking in is with his batting average. He is hitting just .231 but it is so early in the season there is room for improvement, something a couple of base hits would take care of. His strikeout pace is 153 for the season, which is roughly his normal level. Surprisingly, he is on pace to post over a 100 walk season which would be his first in his major league career. He is being more selective at the plate and that is a positive too. He has not eliminated all the doubts about his shoulder but he is on the way with a decent start (by his standards) so far. (Apr 21)
Roy Oswalt in Worst Slump of His Career
Oswalt has been one of the most consistent starters in the major leagues since 2004. His ERA and Ratio have remained amazingly consistent. The only change we have seen with Oswalt is a drop in his K/9 rate from 2004 to 2005. Since 2005, his K/9 rate has fallen between 6.54-6.85. Last seaso,n we did see a slight uptick in walks but it was not anything to worry about.
Three starts into the 2008 season and Oswalt has posted some alarming numbers. He has allowed 30 hits in 16 innings of work. A detailed review of his pitching logs the past four seasons does not provide us with a bad stretch anything close to what we have seen already this season. Even in 2003 when he battled the sports hernia problems, he still pitched effectively.
A positive is the fact his K/9 rate has remained consistent with recent seasons. However, he is throwing 18.3 pitches per inning this year and that tells us he is struggling plus hitters are extending innings against him. He is on pace to allow 62 homers and even though the sample size is small (three starts) this is a disturbing number.
We learned a couple of days ago that Oswalt felt a twinge in his pitching in his second start of the year. We have not heard a word since. There were no reports on any ailments in the spring though he did allow six more hits than innings pitched. Overall, it was a solid spring training. Oswalt does not have a history of arm problems, in fact, he is more durable than almost any other starter in the NL. If he were not completely healthy this would help explain his early season struggles. Behind the scenes, there are not any rumors floating around about an injury but that does not mean he is not ailing. While there are not a lot of facts to back up an opinion he is hurt, a gut feeling says there is a physical ailment or shoulder weakness that is leading to his poor start. We should hear something soon if he is indeed is hurt. (April 14)
On the DL Again...
Oakland placed Harden on the DL retroactive to April 3 Thursday PM. With this news, we get a bit more information regarding the injury. He has a grade 1 subscapularis strain in his right shoulder. The subscapularis muscle is located underneath the scapula and connects to the front of the upper arm. It is not part of the rotator cuff; rather, it is used to move the rotator cuff during the throwing motion. This is the first time he has suffered an injury to this muscle and this is his sixth trip to the disabled list in five plus seasons in the majors. This muscle is different than the first reported Lat strain which is the latissimus dorsi muscle. The description provided by the A’s suggests this is a minor strain and he should return between 15-21 days. That said, Harden has never had a quick recovery from any of his injuries. His personal medical history tells us he could be out longer than the minimum DL stay. (April 10)
Hanley Ramirez Overcomes Shoulder Surgery
After last season, Ramirez underwent surgery to have a damaged labrum in his non-throwing shoulder repaired. While he was able to play with the ailment late last season, the Marlins believed he needed to have the surgery. This spring, we preached the percentage play was to downgrade his projected power numbers and look for a slow start in 2008. He now has 25-at-bats and is batting .440 and a .800 slugging percentage so far. So much for believing Ramirez would struggle getting out of the gate. You cannot help but be impressed with his fast start and there does not appear to be any shoulder weakness affecting his bat right now. Is he out of the woods yet? We are not ready to declare all the risk is gone because the shoulder could become fatigued and weaken in the coming weeks. However, this fast start should comfort his owners for the time being but we will not know if he has avoided a major impact on his game until the middle part of the season. (Apr 7)
Is MLB Off to Another Injury Plagued Start?
Last season, the 30 major league teams placed 404 players on the disabled list. In the seven years I have been collection data, this is the first time more than 400 players landed on the disabled list. Looking back at other data, it is very likely the record for a single season.
A look back at the 2007 “DL Season” the bump in the injury rate occurred from Spring Training through the end of April. Starting in May, DL moves returned to their pre-2007 level. The almost 20% increase occurred in March-April. I was eager to compile the numbers last night to see how this spring training would fare compared to last year. It seemed like a quiet spring on the surface this year.
Last year, the American League had 53 player on the DL as of Opening Day, 56 in the National League for a total of 109. The count so far this year: 41 in the American League and 63 in the National League for a total of 104. With a handful of players still eligible for retroactive moves, it is possible that we could reach 109 players on the DL this season too. We are already at 95% of 2007 with a chance for that percentage to increase. Even if it does not happen, this is the second year in a row that DL moves are up over the previous five seasons.
By the end of April, we will know if last season was an aberration or that DL moves are up for the second season in a row. The reason? Let’s wait to get another round of numbers before we start debating the reasons for the increase. (updated April 6)
John Lackey Makes a Quicker Than Expected Recovery
The Angels expect Lackey to get the green light to resume some light throwing on the side on Friday. This just two weeks after being diagnosed with a strained triceps muscle in his pitching arm. If he is able to throw without any pain the next 7-10 days, he will be on a program that would get him back on the mound in 4-5 weeks. This would put his return in early May, meaning he would miss only 5-6 starts this season. The two keys in his early recovery is the need to avoid a setback in the form of pain in the triceps region. Second, he needs to be able to rebuild up his arm strength. The fact he was in shutdown mode for just a couple of weeks and not three or maybe even four that some though in the Angels’ camp is a plus. If you are drafting this weekend you do not need to down grade him as much as a couple of weeks ago but there is still some risk involved with drafting him due to this malady. (Mar 26)
Escobar to Miss First Half of 2008, Maybe the Entire Season!
Earlier in the spring, I expressed concern that Escobar’s pitching shoulder was acting up again. He did after all receive treatment late last season and had an offseason to rest then rehab the shoulder.
Fast forward to February 2008 and it surfaced again early in the month during the rehab process. During spring training, Escobar had several positive developments, albeit small ones before suffering a relapse. The latest occurred when the Angeles shutdown Escobar Tuesday March 25 after he felt discomfort over the weekend after 45-foot long toss.
Forty-five foot long toss is light years away from pitching off a mound, against live hitters and throwing breaking balls. Something Escobar has not come close to this spring and will not for some time. The fact he has essentially been in a rehab program for his pitching shoulder six months is troubling, especially when the Angels look for progress in ‘baby steps’ not normal progression.
The Angels have been tight lipped about the exact issue he is dealing with. Shoulder soreness is about as deep as they are getting. Our experience tells us that he is dealing with a structural issue; we believe it is a rotator cuff problem that he is attempting to work his way through the past six months.
At the very least, Escobar will miss the first half of the season. If he is unable to get past even long toss the next time he resumes throwing, he should be a candidate for shoulder surgery and he would miss the entire 2008 season. (March 24)
The Baseball Injury Minute Archives
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